Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, March 1st

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following overnight weakness and stronger than expected economic data. Stocks are in rally mode with the Dow up 591 points and the Nasdaq up 231 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (1.41%), but significant gains late Friday are going to allow this morning’s rates to be at least .500 of a discount point lower than Friday’s early pricing. Even if you saw intraday improvements late Friday, you still may see another move lower this morning.



30 yr - 1.42%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

February’s Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning, coming in at 60.8. This was higher than expected and up from January, meaning surveyed manufacturing executives felt business improved during the month. Stronger manufacturing activity contributes to overall economic growth. Therefore, we should consider the data unfavorable for mortgage rates. Fortunately, it appears the negative momentum in bonds has subsided, limiting the impact on today’s rates.




There is nothing of importance set for release tomorrow, the only day of the week without at least one item. The rest of the week has five more monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled for release that may influence mortgage rates, including a key report to close out the calendar Friday morning.



Bond Trends

It is safe to assume that we will have another very active week in the markets ahead of us. We saw chaos in the bond market last week with multiple days of heavy selling and intraday rate increases capped by a significant rally Friday. Hopefully, the recent selling in bonds is now behind us, meaning we would see bond yields and mortgage rates start to trend lower. However, if still floating an interest rate and closing soon, it would be prudent to keep an eye on them because there is an expectation of the markets being active this week.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.